Download PMI.PMI-RMP.VCEplus.2024-11-23.90q.tqb

sensitivity analysis is a technique that helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being examined when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline values. Sensitivity analysis is often used to assess the risk exposure of the project schedule and cost, and to identify the critical risks that need to be managed. In this case, the risk manager needs to understand how the new risk resulting from the delay will affect the project deadline, which is the objective being examined. By performing sensitivity analysis, the risk manager can compare the relative importance and interaction of the new risk with other existing risks, and determine the worst-case scenarios for the project completion date. Sensitivity analysis can also help to prioritize risks for response planning and to develop contingency reserves.This is part of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process in the PMBOK Guide2.Reference:1: PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline2: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition

According to the PMI-RMP Exam Content Outline1, one of the tools and techniques for risk identification is the Delphi technique. This is a method of obtaining expert opinions anonymously and iteratively until a consensus is reached. The Delphi technique can help overcome the problem of SMEs being reluctant to participate in risk identification because it allows them to express their views without fear of criticism or confrontation from other participants. The Delphi technique can also reduce the influence of dominant or biased individuals and encourage honest and independent feedback.Therefore, the best answer is B.Reference:1: PMI-RMP Exam Content Outline, page 8.

A risk trigger is an indication or warning sign that a risk is about to occur or has occurred. A risk trigger can be an event, a condition, or a situation that signals the onset of a risk. A risk trigger can help the project team to identify and respond to risks in a timely manner. In this case, the lack of space to install air conditioners is a risk with high impact on the project. A potential need to share the space with other machinery is an example of an early risk trigger, because it indicates that the space issue may become a problem in the future. If the project team detects this trigger, they can take proactive actions to avoid or mitigate the risk, such as finding an alternative location, modifying the design, or negotiating with the stakeholders.Reference:PMI, The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects, 2019, p. 102-103.

The risk manager should first update the risk register with the new risk identified by the vendor. This will help in keeping track of all the risks associated with the project and facilitate the subsequent planning and management of the risks.The risk manager should update the new risk in the risk register, which is a project document that records the details of all identified risks, including their description, category, cause, probability, impact, and response strategy. Updating the risk register is the first step to acknowledge the existence of the new risk and to document its characteristics and potential effects on the project objectives. The risk register can then be used as an input for the Plan Risk Responses process, where the risk manager can develop appropriate actions to address the new risk.Reference:PMI, A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide), Sixth Edition, 2017, p. 397, 441.

The risk manager should include an escalation process in the risk management plan to address risks that may impact other projects. This ensures that any identified risks that could affect multiple projects are communicated and managed appropriately across the organization.The risk manager should include an escalation process in the risk management plan to deal with risks that may affect other projects or the organization as a whole. An escalation process is a set of procedures that defines how and when risks should be communicated to higher levels of authority or responsibility for decision making or resolution. The escalation process should specify the criteria, roles, responsibilities, and communication channels for escalating risks. The risk manager should follow the escalation process when identifying risks that may have extensive impacts beyond the scope of the project. The other options are not appropriate actions for the risk manager to take. Contacting the risk managers of the other projects and informing them is not sufficient, as it does not ensure that the risks are properly addressed or resolved. Taking note of the extensive impact of these risks in the risk register is not enough, as it does not involve the necessary stakeholders or decision makers. Addressing the unique characteristics of these risks on a case-by-case basis is not consistent, as it does not follow a standard process or protocol.Reference:2,3,4

Adding correlation to the model accounts for the relationship between activities, which can result in increased variability in the model's outcomes. This will increase the standard deviation, which is a measure of the uncertainty in the model.According to the PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1, an effect of adding the correlation to the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis model is that it increases the standard deviation of the model.This is because:Correlation is the statistical relationship between two or more variables. In a schedule risk analysis, correlation can be used to model the dependency between the durations of different activities. For example, if two activities are positively correlated, it means that if one activity takes longer than expected, the other activity is also likely to take longer than expected. Conversely, if two activities are negatively correlated, it means that if one activity takes longer than expected, the other activity is likely to take shorter than expected.A Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis is a simulation technique that uses random values for uncertain variables, such as activity durations, to generate possible outcomes for the project schedule. The simulation is repeated many times to produce a probability distribution of the project completion date and duration. The standard deviation is a measure of the variability or dispersion of the distribution. A higher standard deviation means that the distribution is more spread out and less predictable.Adding correlation to the Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis model increases the standard deviation of the model because it introduces more variability and uncertainty to the simulation. Correlated activities can have a cumulative effect on the project schedule, either positively or negatively, depending on the direction and strength of the correlation. This can result in more extreme outcomes for the project completion date and duration, which increase the spread of the distribution and the standard deviation.PMBOK Guide, 6th edition, Chapter 11: Project Risk Management1Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Exam Cert Guide2

A contingency response plan helps the project manager to be prepared for unexpected situations, such as delays in equipment mobilization. This plan should outline alternative actions to take in case of such delays, minimizing the impact on the project.According to the PMBOK Guide, a contingency response plan is a predefined action that the project team will take if an identified risk event occurs. It is part of the risk response plan, which is the output of the Plan Risk Responses process. The contingency response plan helps the project team to reduce the impact of the risk event on the project objectives, such as scope, schedule, cost, and quality. The contingency response plan should be documented in the risk register, along with the risk triggers, the assigned risk owners, and the allocated contingency reserves.The project manager for project X should prepare a contingency response plan to avoid the situation of being dependent on the availability of critical equipment from another project, project Y. This is because the equipment mobilization is an external dependency, which is a type of inter-project dependency that occurs when a project relies on another project for a deliverable or resource. Inter-project dependencies are a source of risk for the project, as they may cause delays, conflicts, or changes in the project scope or quality. The project manager should identify, analyze, and monitor the inter-project dependencies, and plan appropriate risk responses to deal with them.The contingency response plan for the equipment mobilization could include alternative sources of equipment, such as renting, purchasing, or borrowing from other projects or vendors. The contingency response plan could also include schedule adjustments, such as fast-tracking, crashing, or re-sequencing the activities that require the equipment. The contingency response plan should be implemented when the risk trigger occurs, such as the notification of the delay from the other project manager. The project manager should also communicate the contingency response plan to the relevant stakeholders, such as the project sponsor, customer, team members, and other project managers.The other options are not valid for avoiding the situation in the future:Ask the other project manager to officially confirm the new date in writing: This is not a valid option because it does not address the root cause of the problem, which is the dependency on the equipment from another project. Asking for a confirmation in writing may help to document the issue and track the progress, but it does not prevent the situation from happening again. The project manager should plan for the possibility of delays or changes in the equipment availability, and not rely on the other project manager's promises or commitments.Request that the other project manager be added to relevant reports: This is not a valid option because it does not address the root cause of the problem, which is the dependency on the equipment from another project.Adding the other project manager to the relevant reports may help to improve the communication and coordination between the projects, but it does not prevent the situation from happening again. The project manager should plan for the possibility of delays or changes in the equipment availability, and not rely on the other project manager's information or updates.Request that the other project manager inform if any additional delays are expected: This is not a valid option because it does not address the root cause of the problem, which is the dependency on the equipment from another project. Requesting the other project manager to inform if any additional delays are expected may help to anticipate and prepare for the impact, but it does not prevent the situation from happening again. The project manager should plan for the possibility of delays or changes in the equipment availability, and not rely on the other project manager's forecasts or estimates.

The risk manager should update the risk register with both the opportunities and threats identified during the SWOT analysis. This will help in tracking and managing all potential risks throughout the project lifecycle. Update the risk register with the identified risksComprehensive and Detailed Explanation:According to the PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline1, one of the tasks in the domain ofRisk Identificationis to update the risk register with identified risks, causes, categories, and potential responses1.A risk register is a document used to track and report on project risks and opportunities throughout the project's life cycle2. In this scenario, the risk manager should update the risk register with the identified risks, both opportunities and threats, that result from the SWOT analysis. The risk manager should also include the causes, categories, and potential responses for each risk, as well as other relevant information such as probability, impact, priority, owner, etc.The risk manager should not add only the threats to the risk register, because opportunities are also a type of risk that can have a positive effect on the project objectives and should be recorded and managed accordingly3.The risk manager should not utilize different tools to identify the risks, because the SWOT analysis is a valid and useful tool for risk identification and there is no indication that it was insufficient or inappropriate for the project context4.The risk manager should not plan risk responses to the threats, because that is a separate process that comes after risk identification and requires further analysis and evaluation of the risks5.Reference:1: PMI Risk Management Professional (PMI-RMP) Examination Content Outline, page 82: Risk Register in Project Management - Project Management Academy63: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition, page 3974: How to Perform a SWOT Analysis - Project Risk Coach25: A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide) -- Sixth Edition, page 440.

In risk management, to calculate the contingency budget for risks, we use the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) formula: EMV=ProbabilityofRiskImpactofRisk\text{EMV} = \text{Probability of Risk} \times \text{Impact of Risk}EMV=ProbabilityofRiskImpactofRiskFor Risk A:Probability: 40% or 0.40Impact: US$100,000 \text{EMV of Risk A} = 0.40 \times 100,000 = US$40,000For Risk B:Probability: 60% or 0.60Impact: US$20,000 \text{EMV of Risk B} = 0.60 \times 20,000 = US$12,000Total contingency budget = EMV of Risk A + EMV of Risk B 40,000 + 12,000 = US$52,000Thus, the total contingency budget required for both risks is US$52,000. This approach follows PMI's risk management guidelines, specifically under the 'Quantitative Risk Analysis' process. This process focuses on determining numerical probabilities and monetary impacts to compute the expected financial impact of identified risks.

The first thing the risk manager should do is analyze the situation and meet with the risk owner. This will allow the risk manager to understand the challenges faced by the risk owner and work with them to find a solution.Conducting a cost-benefit analysis or changing the risk response strategy may be necessary, but it is important to first understand the situation before taking any action.According to the PMI-RMP Exam Content Outline, one of the tasks in the domain of Risk Response Planning is to ''assist the risk owners in developing and implementing risk response strategies and actions based on the agreed-upon risk response plan''. Therefore, the first thing the risk manager should do is to analyze the situation and meet with the risk owner to understand the root cause of the challenges and the cost overrun, and to discuss possible solutions or alternatives. Highlighting this situation to the project manager, conducting a cost-benefit analysis, or changing the risk response strategy are possible actions that can be taken after the analysis and meeting, but not before.Reference: PMI-RMP Exam Content Outline, Domain 3: Risk Response Planning, Task 31